Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.56
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.65
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.5
X/1
12%
5.09
X/2
12%
5.71
X/X
13%
3.9
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
15%
4.3
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 1/X at 13.5 — our 13% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.4pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
Crosses 20.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
0W-0D-2L
AWAY PAOK
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
15.12.2010 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK AVL
30.09.2010 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
AWAY PAOK
1.60 xG 0.43
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 5
296 Passes 496
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb got the better of PAOK 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 32% / 35% — and on the day Dinamo Zagreb made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 40% of the ball to PAOK's 60%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.60 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.00 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK?

Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 PAOK in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 33%, draw 32%, PAOK 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (PAOK), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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