Sturm Graz 0-3 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.57
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.11
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
10%
6.47
X/2
12%
4.59
X/X
12%
3.95
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
3.14
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.11 — our 20% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.6pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
Crosses 22.8
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-3
AWAY Lille
1.00 xG 2.87
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
199 Passes 520
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille ran out comfortable winners over Sturm Graz 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Lille made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 32% of the ball to Lille's 68%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.00 to 2.87.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Lille?

Sturm Graz 0-3 Lille in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 35%, draw 24%, Lille 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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