Molde 2-1 Club Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
13%
15.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
4.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
12%
5.87
X/2
9%
5.19
X/X
9%
4.41
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.46
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+7.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.00/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.69
-69% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 76%
41.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
27.0 Crosses 12.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
2-1
AWAY Club Brugge
0.88 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 7
442 Passes 413
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Molde vs Club Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde nicked a narrow win over Club Brugge 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Molde had 50% of the ball to Club Brugge's 50%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.88 to 1.51 — on chances, Club Brugge could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Molde vs Club Brugge?

Molde 2-1 Club Brugge in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Club Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Molde 41%, draw 25%, Club Brugge 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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