Club Guarani 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.37
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club Guarani EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 34%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +56% / +56%
1.61/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.12
+74% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -45%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.2 Crosses 21.0
0.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club Guarani
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.09.2023 Club Guarani Club Guarani 2-1 HT 2-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
09.07.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-2 HT 0-1 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
07.05.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 3-0 HT 1-0 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
26.02.2023 Club Guarani Club Guarani 3-1 HT 3-1 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
31.10.2021 Club Guarani Club Guarani 2-1 HT 2-1 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
16.08.2021 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-4 HT 1-2 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club Guarani
0-1
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
0.34 xG 0.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
230 Passes 223
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
8 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Club Guarani vs Sportivo Luqueno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Luqueno squeezed past Club Guarani 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Club Guarani at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Club Guarani had 50% of the ball to Sportivo Luqueno's 50%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.34 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club Guarani had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Club Guarani and 1.33 for Sportivo Luqueno.

What was the final score of Club Guarani vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Club Guarani 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno in the Copa Sudamericana on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club Guarani vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club Guarani win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Club Guarani 44%, draw 28%, Sportivo Luqueno 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Club Guarani) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Club Guarani) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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