Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Umm Salal v Al Gharafa — Team-Based Signals
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
Al Gharafa
KAT
1-2
HT 0-1
Al Gharafa
KAT
Umm Salal 0-1 Al Gharafa — Actual Match Statistics
Al Gharafa squeezed past Umm Salal 1-0 away from home.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Umm Salal had 41% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 59%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.62 to 2.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Gharafa's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Umm Salal and 2.00 for Al Gharafa.
What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
Umm Salal 0-1 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 26%, draw 23%, Al Gharafa 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.