Gwangju 3-2 Incheon United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
36%
2.83
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.45
Over 2.5
31%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
5.67
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.28
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
17%
6.38
X/2
11%
4.83
X/X
16%
3.36
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
19%
3.44
2/X
14%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.6pp
36%
Draw
32%
+4.3pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-4.9pp
69%
Under 2.5
65%
+3.5pp
31%
Over 2.5
35%
-3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Incheon United EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
0.97/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
-26% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +137% / +22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.7 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Incheon United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
528 Passes 259
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Incheon United Incheon United 1-0 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
14.07.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR
25.05.2024 Incheon United Incheon United 1-1 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
03.04.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-3 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
28.10.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
18.08.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 2-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
3-2
AWAY Incheon United
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
300 Passes 538
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Incheon United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju edged past Incheon United 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (30% / 36% / 34%) promised a tight game; Gwangju found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 37% of the ball to Incheon United's 63%, shots finished 6-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Incheon United led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gwangju and 1.83 for Incheon United.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Incheon United?

Gwangju 3-2 Incheon United in the South Kore - K League Classic on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Incheon United?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 30%, draw 36%, Incheon United 34%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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