Chicago Fire 2-1 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Apr 2024

Chicago Fire
2-1 HT 1-0
Houston Dynamo
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
10%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
11%
4.79
X/2
17%
6.35
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.72
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-7.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+7.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chicago Fire v Houston Dynamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
1.37/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.45
-9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.4 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 1.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
383 Passes 312
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.06.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-4 HT 1-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABDK
26.06.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-0 HT 2-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
24.09.2020 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-0 HT 3-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
04.08.2019 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
20.05.2018 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
22.10.2017 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 3-0 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD

Chicago Fire 2-1 Houston Dynamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
2-1
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.44 xG 0.98
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
284 Passes 464
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire nicked a narrow win over Houston Dynamo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Chicago Fire found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 41% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 59%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.44 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.00 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo?

Chicago Fire 2-1 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 37%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
7 Apr 2024
02:30 Columbus Crew vs DC United Analysis →
02:30 New York City FC vs Atlanta United Analysis →
02:30 FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →
02:30 New England Revolution vs Charlotte Analysis →
02:30 Inter Miami vs Colorado Rapids Analysis →
02:30 Vancouver Whitecaps vs Toronto FC Analysis →