Los Angeles FC 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒02:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.75
2-3 Goals
35%
2.04
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
16%
6.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
10%
8.96
X/X
9%
6.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.7
2/2
9%
5.7
2/X
8%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.6pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.0pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.98/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.59
+4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.1 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles FC
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.76 xG 1.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
289 Passes 432
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 4-2 HT 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
05.07.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 HT 1-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
24.05.2023 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABDK
16.04.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 HT 1-1 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
21.10.2022 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 3-2 HT 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
09.07.2022 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles FC
2-1
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
3.62 xG 1.13
33% Ball Possession 67%
20 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
272 Passes 611
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles FC nicked a narrow win over Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Los Angeles FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Los Angeles FC had 33% of the ball to Los Angeles Galaxy's 67%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 3.62 to 1.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Los Angeles FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Los Angeles FC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Los Angeles FC and 2.00 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Los Angeles FC 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles FC 46%, draw 28%, Los Angeles Galaxy 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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