Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Apr 2024

Sporting Kansas City
3-3 HT 3-0
Portland Timbers
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.03
Over Pick
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.83
2-3
39%
1.83
4-5
25%
3.2
6+
11%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.71
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
14%
4.64
X/2
8%
7.25
X/X
14%
5.05
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
13%
5.06
2/X
5%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Timbers The Market 31%
+3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.50/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.75
+11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.7 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Portland Timbers
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.55 xG 1.48
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
480 Passes 273
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.05.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-1 HT 1-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
28.02.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
22.08.2022 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-1 HT 3-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
15.05.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 7-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
19.08.2021 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
20.06.2021 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
3-3
AWAY Portland Timbers
2.57 xG 2.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 1
394 Passes 402
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Kansas City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 50% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 50%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.57 to 2.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.17 for Portland Timbers.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 46%, draw 26%, Portland Timbers 28%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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