Estudiantes Caseros 2-1 Guillermo Brown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
35%
2.94
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.44
Over 2.5
30%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.33
No
60%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.1pp
35%
Draw
30%
+4.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.9pp
70%
Under 2.5
66%
+3.9pp
30%
Over 2.5
34%
-3.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
39%
+1.4pp
60%
BTTS No
61%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estudiantes Caseros EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Guillermo Brown EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -17%
1.32/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.43
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estudiantes Caseros
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Guillermo Brown
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
06.08.2022 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 3-2 HT 2-1 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown ARJPBN
08.12.2019 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 1-1 HT 0-0 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Estudiantes Caseros vs Guillermo Brown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estudiantes Caseros squeezed past Guillermo Brown 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Estudiantes Caseros as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Estudiantes Caseros had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Estudiantes Caseros and 1.50 for Guillermo Brown.

What was the final score of Estudiantes Caseros vs Guillermo Brown?

Estudiantes Caseros 2-1 Guillermo Brown in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estudiantes Caseros vs Guillermo Brown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estudiantes Caseros win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estudiantes Caseros 41%, draw 35%, Guillermo Brown 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estudiantes Caseros) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estudiantes Caseros) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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