Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal U21 v Derby County U21 — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21 — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal U21 and Derby County U21 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
This one beat our numbers. Arsenal U21 carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Arsenal U21 had 61% of the ball to Derby County U21's 39%, shots finished 19-7.
What was the final score of Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?
Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U21 56%, draw 22%, Derby County U21 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal U21) went the other way.