Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
56%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
33%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Arsenal U21 win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-9.4pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.7pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.8pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal U21 EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.99/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/2.67
+35% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
435 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 82%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.5 Crosses 10.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal U21
2-2
AWAY Derby County U21
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
423 Passes 249
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal U21 and Derby County U21 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Arsenal U21 carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal U21 had 61% of the ball to Derby County U21's 39%, shots finished 19-7.

What was the final score of Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?

Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U21 56%, draw 22%, Derby County U21 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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