Libertad 2-2 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 7 Apr 2026

📅07/04/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.60/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.39
+32% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.2 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
177 Passes 238
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.08.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 HT 1-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
19.04.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
26.09.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKVK
03.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
02.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
02.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-2
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.28 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
333 Passes 217
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Mushuc Runa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Libertad had 57% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 43%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.28 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Libertad and 1.50 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Mushuc Runa?

Libertad 2-2 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 07/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Libertad 43%, draw 25%, Mushuc Runa 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →