North Carolina 4-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 7 Jul 2024

North Carolina
4-1 HT 0-1
Miami FC
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

North Carolina vs Miami FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.33
Over 2.5
48%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
8%
7.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.78 — our 29% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-12.2pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+7.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
39%
+13.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
61%
-13.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.6pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Carolina v Miami FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 16%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
2.85/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.89
+3% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
15.3 Crosses 13.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

North Carolina vs Miami FC Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Miami FC
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.13 xG 0.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
280 Passes 262
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
26.05.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 0-4 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP

North Carolina 4-1 Miami FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
4-1
AWAY Miami FC
1.86 xG 1.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
342 Passes 306
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina ran out comfortable winners over Miami FC 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, North Carolina had 52% of the ball to Miami FC's 48%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.86 to 1.04.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Miami FC?

North Carolina 4-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 56%, draw 23%, Miami FC 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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