Chelsea 1-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 7 Aug 2024

Chelsea
1-2 HT 1-2
Real Madrid
📅07/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Friendlies – 2024

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.89
Over 2.5
61%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.38
No
44%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.74
2-3 Goals
37%
2.15
4-5 Goals
31%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.36
1/2
6%
19.9
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
13%
7.5
X/2
15%
5.07
X/X
11%
6.6
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
23%
2.56
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-2.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
31%
+7.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
69%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.0pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 51%
-47% / -47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.32/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.30
+46% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -47%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 85%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
11.1 Crosses 12.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.90 xG 1.27
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
477 Passes 499
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
12.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea ŞMP
12.04.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-3 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea ŞMP
06.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-3 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
05.05.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
27.04.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea ŞMP

Chelsea 1-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-2
AWAY Real Madrid
1.30 xG 1.10
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
414 Passes 545
92% Pass Accuracy 92%
22 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid squeezed past Chelsea 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 43% of the ball to Real Madrid's 57%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.30 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chelsea and 1.67 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Real Madrid?

Chelsea 1-2 Real Madrid in the Friendlies on 07/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 31%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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