Leones Negros Udeg 1-3 Correcaminos UAT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 7 Aug 2026

📅07/08/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.92
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
48%
+9.1pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.3pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 30%
+11% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.88/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.62
+20% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -9%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Correcaminos UAT
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.01.2026 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-0 HT 0-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
16.08.2025 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
14.02.2025 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-3 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
31.08.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 HT 2-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
28.02.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-1 HT 0-1 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
21.09.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-2 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
1-3
AWAY Correcaminos UAT
28 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Correcaminos UAT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Correcaminos UAT saw off Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Leones Negros Udeg at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 28-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.83 for Correcaminos UAT.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Correcaminos UAT?

Leones Negros Udeg 1-3 Correcaminos UAT in the Mexico - Primera A on 07/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Correcaminos UAT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 57%, draw 20%, Correcaminos UAT 23%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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