Doncaster Rovers 1-0 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
1.78
Over
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No Pick
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.04
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
20%
3.84
6+
8%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
11%
4.16
X/2
8%
8.13
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
6.39
2/X
5%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
50%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.7pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham The Market 27%
-9% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -4%
1.54/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.13
-10% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
409 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 68%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.9 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 1.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 180
70% Pass Accuracy 59%
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-1 HT 1-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
07.04.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
29.10.2022 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
12.03.2022 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
19.10.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
20.03.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 2-2 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
1-0
AWAY Gillingham
1.56 xG 0.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
195 Passes 282
61% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers nicked a narrow win over Gillingham 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Doncaster Rovers as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 43% of the ball to Gillingham's 57%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 1.56 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Doncaster Rovers's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.00 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Gillingham?

Doncaster Rovers 1-0 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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