Kagoshima United 1-3 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
8%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 32% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.2pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.01/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.18
-10% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Iwaki
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.03.2024 Iwaki Iwaki 3-1 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
06.11.2022 Iwaki Iwaki 3-0 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
13.03.2022 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-1 HT 1-1 Iwaki Iwaki JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
1-3
AWAY Iwaki
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
246 Passes 217
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iwaki got the better of Kagoshima United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Iwaki found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 55% of the ball to Iwaki's 45%, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Iwaki led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kagoshima United and 2.33 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Iwaki?

Kagoshima United 1-3 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an Iwaki win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 32%, draw 28%, Iwaki 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Iwaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Iwaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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