Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
13%
8.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.4pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +25%
2.32/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.38
+17% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1W-2D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
2.98 xG 2.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
353 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.03.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
01.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-2 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
04.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
01.12.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-4 HT 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
11.04.2018 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-1
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
52% Ball Possession 48%
24 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
385 Passes 336
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse and V-Varen Nagasaki couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Shimizu S-Pulse at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 52% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 48%, shots finished 24-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 2.40 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 52%, draw 22%, V-Varen Nagasaki 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Over 2.5
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