Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 7 Sep 2025

📅07/09/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.34
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.73
6+ Goals
13%
7.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.56
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.65
X/1
25%
3.83
X/2
6%
16.3
X/X
8%
7.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.8
2/2
7%
13.6
2/X
6%
21.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
70%
-5.8pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.8pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 15%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.55/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/0.83
+7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.53 xG 0.43
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
277 Passes 306
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
35 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2025 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 3-2 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
07.05.2025 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
19.10.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.04.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
05.08.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
27.05.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
75% Ball Possession 25%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima swept aside Shonan Bellmare 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 75% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 25%, shots finished 16-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.00 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - League Cup on 07/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64%, draw 19%, Shonan Bellmare 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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