Swindon Town 3-1 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.53
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
11%
6.71
X/2
13%
5.09
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.06
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.9pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +1%
1.33/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/1.27
+21% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
287 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 71%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.1 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.74 xG 0.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 Passes 287
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.03.2021 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
12.12.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
01.04.2017 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
17.12.2016 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
02.04.2016 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
21.11.2015 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 5-1 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
3-1
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.87 xG 0.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
176 Passes 193
63% Pass Accuracy 63%
19 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town got the better of Fleetwood Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Swindon Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 46% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 54%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.87 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swindon Town and 1.33 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?

Swindon Town 3-1 Fleetwood Town in the England - 2nd Division on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fleetwood Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 35%, draw 26%, Fleetwood Town 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fleetwood Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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