Audace Cerignola 1-1 Casertana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 33% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.8pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Casertana EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
1.69/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.95
+37% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Audace Cerignola
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Casertana
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2025 Casertana Casertana 0-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
29.09.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 0-0 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
11.05.2024 Casertana Casertana 0-0 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
07.03.2024 Casertana Casertana 1-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
29.10.2023 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 2-4 HT 0-2 Casertana Casertana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Audace Cerignola
1-1
AWAY Casertana
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Audace Cerignola vs Casertana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Audace Cerignola and Casertana shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Audace Cerignola at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Audace Cerignola had 55% of the ball to Casertana's 45%, shots finished 10-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Audace Cerignola and 1.00 for Casertana.

What was the final score of Audace Cerignola vs Casertana?

Audace Cerignola 1-1 Casertana in the Italy - Serie C on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Audace Cerignola vs Casertana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Audace Cerignola win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Audace Cerignola 41%, draw 26%, Casertana 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Audace Cerignola), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Audace Cerignola) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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