Genk 2-1 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 26% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
19%
4.26
X/2
9%
9.41
X/X
12%
5.22
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
12%
7.39
2/X
8%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
2.16/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.64
+5% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
19.6 Crosses 17.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.73 xG 1.70
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 Passes 182
72% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-3 HT 2-2 Genk Genk BEL
04.05.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 4-1 HT 3-1 Genk Genk BEL
13.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
20.01.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.08.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
17.03.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY Cercle Brugge
2.71 xG 0.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
457 Passes 217
81% Pass Accuracy 64%
37 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Cercle Brugge 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Genk had 62% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 38%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.71 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Genk's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Genk and 1.50 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Genk 2-1 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Genk 48%, draw 26%, Cercle Brugge 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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