Cercle Brugge 2-3 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
28%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.02
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
12%
6.54
X/2
12%
5.32
X/X
10%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
27.0
2/2
22%
3.02
2/X
9%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 45%
-14% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.32/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.46
-26% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
20.9 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cercle Brugge
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Genk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 1.41
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
178 Passes 324
60% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 4-1 HT 3-1 Genk Genk BEL
13.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
20.01.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.08.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
17.03.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2022 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cercle Brugge
2-3
AWAY Genk
0.82 xG 4.52
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 12
6 Corners 6
182 Passes 478
60% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 37
21 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cercle Brugge vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Cercle Brugge 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Cercle Brugge had 35% of the ball to Genk's 65%, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 0.82 to 4.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Genk's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.17 for Genk.

What was the final score of Cercle Brugge vs Genk?

Cercle Brugge 2-3 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cercle Brugge vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cercle Brugge 33%, draw 26%, Genk 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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