Southampton 0-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 8 Feb 2025

Southampton
0-1 HT 0-0
Burnley
📅08/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2024/2025

Southampton vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.78
Over 2.5
58%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
6+ Goals
12%
15.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.6
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.47
X/2
10%
7.78
X/X
10%
4.55
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
10%
6.12
2/X
5%
14.55
Value flag · X/1 at 4.47 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
48%
+4.2pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.2pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
52%
-10.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
48%
+10.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
2.76/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/1.42
+18% / +139% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
388 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 73%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
23.4 Crosses 11.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Southampton vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Burnley
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.01
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
340 Passes 233
74% Pass Accuracy 64%
25 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2022 Burnley Burnley 2-0 HT 2-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
23.10.2021 Southampton Southampton 2-2 HT 1-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
04.04.2021 Southampton Southampton 3-2 HT 2-2 Burnley Burnley İNP
26.09.2020 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
15.02.2020 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
10.08.2019 Burnley Burnley 3-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP

Southampton 0-1 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
0-1
AWAY Burnley
0.98 xG 1.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
489 Passes 345
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley squeezed past Southampton 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southampton had 58% of the ball to Burnley's 42%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.98 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Southampton and 1.83 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Burnley?

Southampton 0-1 Burnley in the England - FA Cup on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Southampton 53%, draw 22%, Burnley 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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