Stoke City 3-3 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.94
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
13%
4.93
X/2
9%
6.93
X/X
12%
4.66
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
21%
4.99
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 32%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.04/0.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.30
+20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
Crosses 15.6
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
382 Passes 255
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
24.02.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 2-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
04.11.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
22.04.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
10.12.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 2-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
16.03.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 2-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
3-3
AWAY Cardiff City
2.08 xG 1.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 10
8 Corners 4
477 Passes 498
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 40
33 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City and Cardiff City couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Stoke City had 49% of the ball to Cardiff City's 51%, shots finished 13-23, expected goals 2.08 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Stoke City and 1.50 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Cardiff City?

Stoke City 3-3 Cardiff City in the England - FA Cup on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 38%, draw 27%, Cardiff City 35%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stoke City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stoke City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
8 Feb 2025
15:15 Leeds United vs Millwall Analysis →
15:15 Leyton Orient vs Manchester City Analysis →
18:00 Coventry vs Ipswich Town Analysis →
18:00 Southampton vs Burnley Analysis →
18:00 Everton vs Bournemouth Analysis →
18:00 Wigan Athletic vs Fulham Analysis →