VPS 2-1 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 8 Feb 2025

VPS
2-1 HT 1-1
Oulu
📅08/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.36
2-3 Goals
47%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.2
6+ Goals
7%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.0pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 34%
+45% / +45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.64/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.59
+5% / +147% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
249 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Oulu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
322 Passes 388
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
19.06.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
27.04.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
17.02.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FLK
15.07.2023 VPS VPS 3-0 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
22.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİK
13.05.2023 Oulu Oulu 2-1 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
POST-MATCH VPS vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS squeezed past Oulu 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for VPS and 0.83 for Oulu.

What was the final score of VPS vs Oulu?

VPS 2-1 Oulu in the Finland - League Cup on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split VPS 42%, draw 27%, Oulu 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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