Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Feb 2026

📅08/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
17.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.8
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.65
X/2
12%
7.5
X/X
10%
4.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.5
2/2
9%
5.85
2/X
7%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
1.36/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.07
-19% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
17.4 Crosses 18.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.83 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
313 Passes 398
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.06.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
03.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-3 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
10.07.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-2 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
21.05.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
23.04.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
23.02.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1-0
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.56 xG 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
329 Passes 295
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nagoya Grampus as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 52% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 48%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.56 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 0.67 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 08/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 49%, draw 24%, Shimizu S-Pulse 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ BTTS Yes
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