Ajax II 0-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
2.38
Over
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.48
No
49%
2.45
Total Goals
0-1
27%
5.01
2-3
40%
1.95
4-5
23%
2.76
6+
10%
7.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.01 — our 27% vs market 15.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.91
1/2
12%
21.45
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
14%
7.68
X/2
15%
4.82
X/X
8%
5.67
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
17%
2.56
2/X
8%
12.7
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Ajax II The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda The Market 51%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Strong Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
1.58 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.65
1.58 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.13
Great Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Average
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
10.9 Crosses 19.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-3D-0L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.29
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
13.03.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-6 HT 0-4 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
12.09.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 3-1 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
01.04.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
13.09.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 6-3 HT 4-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
02.04.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
0-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.18 xG 1.35
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
484 Passes 317
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Ajax II vs NAC Breda
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

NAC Breda found just enough to beat Ajax II 1-0 on the road. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.48, about 68%.

On the day, possession split 58% to 42% in Ajax II's favour, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.18 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.83 a game for Ajax II against 1.33 for NAC Breda.

Ajax II vs NAC Breda Result & Final Score

Ajax II 0-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Ajax II vs NAC Breda Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 30%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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