Cambuur 1-2 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.39
No
43%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.0
2-3 Goals
39%
2.07
4-5 Goals
28%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.03
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.05
X/1
15%
5.64
X/2
14%
6.63
X/X
13%
5.9
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
13%
3.78
2/X
5%
12.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 6% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.8pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambuur EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.10/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.23
+1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.2 Crosses 19.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambuur
2W-2D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.66
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
260 Passes 241
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 1-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
30.04.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 1-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
19.11.2020 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
09.08.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
22.05.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
19.05.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 1-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambuur
1-2
AWAY De Graafschap
1.20 xG 1.04
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
314 Passes 288
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 27
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cambuur vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over Cambuur 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cambuur at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Cambuur had 51% of the ball to De Graafschap's 49%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.20 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cambuur and 1.33 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Cambuur vs De Graafschap?

Cambuur 1-2 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cambuur 42%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cambuur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cambuur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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