Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 8 Mar 2025

Borussia Dortmund
0-1 HT 0-1
Augsburg
📅08/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.85
X/1
8%
3.85
X/2
10%
14.5
X/X
10%
6.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.45
2/2
8%
12.15
2/X
8%
20.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.2pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.9pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
2.18/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.73
+44% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +22%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
421 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
17.7 Crosses 15.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Augsburg
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.47 xG 1.30
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
529 Passes 230
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.05.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 4-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.12.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
21.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 0-3 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.01.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-3 HT 2-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
27.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Augsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
0-1
AWAY Augsburg
1.23 xG 0.20
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 3
502 Passes 162
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
42 Box Touches 15
49 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg nicked a narrow win over Borussia Dortmund 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 72% of the ball to Augsburg's 28%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.23 to 0.20 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg?

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 52%, draw 24%, Augsburg 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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