Lecce 2-1 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
25%
2.88
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.56
Over 2.5
53%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.39
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.61
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.21
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.97
X/2
12%
6.89
X/X
11%
3.61
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
15%
5.38
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · X/1 at 4.97 — our 24% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
31%
-6.3pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
60%
-13.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
40%
+13.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.9pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.36/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.34
-29% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.2 Crosses 21.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cremonese
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 Passes 272
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Cremonese Cremonese 2-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.02.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 0-2 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
02.10.2022 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTA
23.01.2022 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 1-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
22.08.2021 Cremonese Cremonese 3-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
13.02.2021 Cremonese Cremonese 1-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
2-1
AWAY Cremonese
1.54 xG 1.06
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
177 Passes 250
69% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce squeezed past Cremonese 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lecce as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 41% of the ball to Cremonese's 59%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.54 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 1.33 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Cremonese?

Lecce 2-1 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie A on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lecce 42%, draw 25%, Cremonese 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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