CA Penarol 1-1 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
16%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.19
No
48%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
60%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
16%
Away Win
16%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
+10.2pp
48%
BTTS No
58%
-10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.66/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.37
-10% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Danubio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
05.04.2025 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
16.10.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.04.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
19.11.2023 Danubio Danubio 2-1 HT 2-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.07.2023 Danubio Danubio 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-1
AWAY Danubio
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol and Danubio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. CA Penarol carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 57% of the ball to Danubio's 43%, shots finished 15-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Danubio.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Danubio?

CA Penarol 1-1 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 62%, draw 22%, Danubio 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CA Penarol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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