Trans Narva 1-0 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 8 Apr 2025

📅08/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-14.4pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 19%
-20% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +36%
1.40/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.18
-29% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +51%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-1 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
17.08.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
12.05.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
13.04.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
11.11.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 5-0 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
01.09.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
1-0
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva edged past Tallinna Kalev 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 60% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 40%, shots finished 11-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Trans Narva and 1.83 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev?

Trans Narva 1-0 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 08/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 49%, draw 27%, Tallinna Kalev 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✗ BTTS Yes
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