Lobos UPNFM 2-1 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 8 Apr 2025

📅08/04/2025 · 🕒04:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
21%
+12.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-12.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.3pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 58%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.11/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/0.89
+20% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Motagua
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
10 Corners 6
07.02.2025 Motagua Motagua 5-0 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
29.09.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
27.07.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
15.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
09.11.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 1-3 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM nicked a narrow win over Motagua 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 3.50 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?

Lobos UPNFM 2-1 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 08/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 33%, draw 25%, Motagua 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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