Louisville City 0-1 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 8 May 2025

📅08/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 33%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-49% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
8.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
10.0 Crosses 24.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
0-1
AWAY Minnesota United
0.74 xG 0.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
268 Passes 293
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 19
38 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United edged past Louisville City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Louisville City had 50% of the ball to Minnesota United's 50%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.74 to 0.43.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Minnesota United?

Louisville City 0-1 Minnesota United in the USA - Open Cup on 08/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 45%, draw 26%, Minnesota United 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABDK More USA - Open Cup
8 May 2025
02:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs New York City FC Analysis →
02:30 Rhode Island vs New England Revolution Analysis →
02:30 Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Orlando City Analysis →
02:30 Philadelphia Union vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
03:00 FC Dallas vs Alta Analysis →
03:00 Chicago Fire vs Detroit City Analysis →