Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Aug 2026

📅08/08/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.62
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.35
X/1
19%
4.99
X/2
8%
7.83
X/X
7%
5.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.65
2/2
15%
5.27
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.65 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.4pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
2.03/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.82
+27% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
22.0 Crosses 19.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.83 xG 1.98
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2026 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-1 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
26.07.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-1 HT 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
14.05.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
02.11.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 4-2 HT 3-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-1
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.35 xG 0.92
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
319 Passes 416
23 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin got the better of Motor Lublin 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.35 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.75 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 46%, draw 24%, Motor Lublin 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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