Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Foshan Nanshi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.22
Draw
24%
5.28
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.4
No
53%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 25% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
78%
-15.2pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.9pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
38%
+9.3pp
53%
BTTS No
62%
-9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Foshan Nanshi EU Bookmakers 9%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.61/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.49
-27% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +7%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 194 · 70%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
29.6 Crosses 11.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Foshan Nanshi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.06 xG 0.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
290 Passes 259
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 8
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2024 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi 0-0 HT 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long ÇİN2
21.04.2024 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi 0-4 HT 0-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long ÇİN2
16.03.2024 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 HT 1-0 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long
1-1
AWAY Foshan Nanshi
1.20 xG 0.85
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
279 Passes 159
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Foshan Nanshi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chongqing Tongliang Long and Foshan Nanshi couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Chongqing Tongliang Long at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Chongqing Tongliang Long had 60% of the ball to Foshan Nanshi's 40%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.20 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chongqing Tongliang Long had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0.33 for Foshan Nanshi.

What was the final score of Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Foshan Nanshi?

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Foshan Nanshi in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Foshan Nanshi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chongqing Tongliang Long win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Chongqing Tongliang Long 62%, draw 24%, Foshan Nanshi 14%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) ✗ BTTS No
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