Lüksemburg 0-1 Belarus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
6.36
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.81
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.85
X/1
18%
3.82
X/2
12%
7.27
X/X
11%
3.63
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
9%
6.77
2/X
8%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-5.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+5.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lüksemburg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Belarus EU Bookmakers 27%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.42/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.40
+12% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 70%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
9.0 Crosses 21.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lüksemburg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Belarus
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.71 xG 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
252 Passes 402
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.11.2018 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Belarus Belarus AVUL
12.10.2018 Belarus Belarus 1-0 HT 1-0 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg AVUL
31.08.2017 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Belarus Belarus DKE
10.10.2016 Belarus Belarus 1-1 HT 0-0 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg DKE
08.09.2015 Belarus Belarus 2-0 HT 1-0 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg AVŞE
08.09.2014 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Belarus Belarus AVŞE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lüksemburg
0-1
AWAY Belarus
0.70 xG 0.53
61% Ball Possession 39%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
468 Passes 258
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lüksemburg vs Belarus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Belarus edged past Lüksemburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lüksemburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Lüksemburg had 61% of the ball to Belarus's 39%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.70 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Belarus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lüksemburg and 1.17 for Belarus.

What was the final score of Lüksemburg vs Belarus?

Lüksemburg 0-1 Belarus in the UEFA Uluslar League on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lüksemburg vs Belarus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lüksemburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lüksemburg 47%, draw 28%, Belarus 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lüksemburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lüksemburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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