Mantova 1-0 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 8 Nov 2025

📅08/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 29% vs market 28.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.18
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
18%
5.04
X/2
11%
6.81
X/X
9%
4.25
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
9%
5.07
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
42%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.9pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.27/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.48
+12% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +47%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 81%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
14.4 Crosses 18.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.01.2024 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-5 HT 0-1 Mantova Mantova İTC
04.09.2023 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
22.04.2023 Mantova Mantova 1-3 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
17.12.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Mantova Mantova İTC
16.03.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
07.11.2021 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
1-0
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.11 xG 0.40
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
517 Passes 254
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova squeezed past Padova Calcio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mantova had 64% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 36%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.11 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mantova and 1.17 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Padova Calcio?

Mantova 1-0 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 08/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mantova 49%, draw 25%, Padova Calcio 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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