Homburg 4-0 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +1%
1.43/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.99
-21% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
05.05.2024 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
28.10.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-4 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
30.04.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
21.10.2022 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
26.02.2022 Homburg Homburg 3-2 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg ran out comfortable winners over Mainz 05 II 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Homburg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Homburg and 1.83 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Mainz 05 II?

Homburg 4-0 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Homburg 46%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 II 26%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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