Mainz 05 II 0-0 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.3pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.46/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.44
-1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Homburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
28.10.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-4 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
30.04.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
21.10.2022 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
26.02.2022 Homburg Homburg 3-2 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
14.09.2021 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 0-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05 II
0-0
AWAY Homburg
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II and Homburg fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mainz 05 II had 62% of the ball to Homburg's 38%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mainz 05 II and 2.00 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Homburg?

Mainz 05 II 0-0 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 34%, draw 25%, Homburg 41%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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