Padova Calcio 1-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 8 Dec 2025

Padova Calcio
1-1 HT 0-0
Cesena
📅08/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Padova Calcio vs Cesena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
2.03
No
44%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
5.11
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.78
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.5
X/1
8%
7.06
X/2
15%
4.8
X/X
13%
3.64
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
20%
3.18
2/X
5%
13.6
Value flag · 1/X at 14.5 — our 10% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.0pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
45%
+10.8pp
44%
BTTS No
55%
-10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Padova Calcio v Cesena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.87/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.95
-55% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
18.3 Crosses 12.7
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Padova Calcio vs Cesena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cesena
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.08.2024 Cesena Cesena 3-1 HT 2-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTK
28.02.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
02.11.2020 Cesena Cesena 0-2 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
09.02.2020 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
25.09.2019 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
09.05.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena nan

Padova Calcio 1-1 Cesena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-1
AWAY Cesena
0.31 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
473 Passes 440
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio and Cesena couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cesena at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 52% of the ball to Cesena's 48%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.31 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.83 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Cesena?

Padova Calcio 1-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 08/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 31%, draw 28%, Cesena 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cesena) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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