PAOK 1-1 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Cup, 9 Jan 2025

📅09/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
13%
4.9
X/2
16%
6.63
X/X
15%
4.35
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
14%
4.83
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.94/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.34
-24% / +115% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
1W-3D-2L
AWAY AEK Atina
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
208 Passes 295
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.12.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
20.10.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-1 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
28.04.2024 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
07.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
11.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.10.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
1-1
AWAY AEK Atina
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK and AEK Atina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PAOK had 52% of the ball to AEK Atina's 48%, shots finished 17-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PAOK and 1.50 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of PAOK vs AEK Atina?

PAOK 1-1 AEK Atina in the Greece - Cup on 09/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split PAOK 40%, draw 25%, AEK Atina 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (PAOK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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