AEK Atina 1-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 33% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.68
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
22%
4.43
X/2
7%
7.52
X/X
16%
4.57
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.63
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.5pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.28/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.22
+2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.2 Crosses 11.4
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
3W-2D-1L
AWAY PAOK
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 0.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
310 Passes 219
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
07.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
11.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.10.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
24.05.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
26.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 4-0 HT 2-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
1-1
AWAY PAOK
0.97 xG 1.55
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
354 Passes 164
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina and PAOK shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, AEK Atina had 65% of the ball to PAOK's 35%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.97 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for AEK Atina and 1.00 for PAOK.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs PAOK?

AEK Atina 1-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 44%, draw 30%, PAOK 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AEK Atina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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