Padova Calcio 3-1 Pro Patria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.53
No
52%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
66%
-15.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
12%
+12.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.0pp
52%
BTTS No
64%
-12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
1.66/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.59
-5% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
397 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Pro Patria
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-1 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
13.02.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-2 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
07.10.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
21.01.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-3 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
17.09.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 3-0 HT 2-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
29.01.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
3-1
AWAY Pro Patria
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Pro Patria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio got the better of Pro Patria 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 63% of the ball to Pro Patria's 37%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.50 for Pro Patria.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Pro Patria?

Padova Calcio 3-1 Pro Patria in the Italy - Serie C on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Pro Patria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 51%, draw 24%, Pro Patria 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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