Pro Patria 1-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.4
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
58%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.41
6+ Goals
7%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
15%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
58%
Away Win
61%
-3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.8pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 66%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
0.37/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.83
-59% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
199 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pro Patria
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-2 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
07.10.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
21.01.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-3 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
17.09.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 3-0 HT 2-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
29.01.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
26.09.2021 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-2 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pro Patria
1-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pro Patria vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pro Patria and Padova Calcio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Padova Calcio carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pro Patria had 39% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 61%, shots finished 9-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pro Patria and 2.17 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Pro Patria vs Padova Calcio?

Pro Patria 1-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pro Patria vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Pro Patria 18%, draw 24%, Padova Calcio 58%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Padova Calcio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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