Alcione 2-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.3
6+ Goals
10%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.7pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alcione EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 40%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
0.00/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.43
-100% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
246 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alcione
2-1
AWAY Novara
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alcione vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcione edged past Novara 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Alcione found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alcione had 42% of the ball to Novara's 58%, shots finished 5-21.

What was the final score of Alcione vs Novara?

Alcione 2-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alcione vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alcione 33%, draw 28%, Novara 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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