Slaven Belupo 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
12%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.3pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.3pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.23/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.12
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
20.7 Crosses 18.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
212 Passes 310
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
17.08.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
12.05.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
02.03.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
16.01.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb ARK
24.11.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
2-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.40 xG 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 4
222 Passes 285
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo edged past Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 33% — and on the day Slaven Belupo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 45% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 55%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.40 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Slaven Belupo 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 35%, draw 32%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slaven Belupo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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