Celaya 4-1 Correcaminos UAT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
14%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
72%
-8.2pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.4pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 14%
-10% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.79/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.53
-17% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -25%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
308 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Correcaminos UAT
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
23.08.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-1 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
26.01.2024 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 2-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
07.10.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
13.04.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 0-1 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
17.10.2022 Celaya Celaya 0-3 HT 0-3 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
23.02.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Correcaminos UAT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya swept aside Correcaminos UAT 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celaya and 0.83 for Correcaminos UAT.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Correcaminos UAT?

Celaya 4-1 Correcaminos UAT in the Mexico - Primera A on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Correcaminos UAT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Celaya 64%, draw 21%, Correcaminos UAT 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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