Monarcas Morelia 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.99
No
46%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
46%
+7.7pp
46%
BTTS No
54%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.68/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/2.12
-14% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
26.08.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
14.04.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 HT 1-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
05.10.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
14.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
22.10.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
27.08.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-3 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia edged past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.17 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Monarcas Morelia 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 53%, draw 24%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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